Strong take on prediction markets as data infra rather than just betting. The Polymarket-ICE deal really does signal a shift from fee-based revenue to data monetization, which makes alot more sense at scale. One thing I'd push back on slightly is the oracle problem for non-binary events like "rainfall hedging" becuz verification gets messy quick and dispute resolution can eat into efficency gains. Still tho, the Arrow-Debreu resurgence angle is something I've been mulling over too.
Very much agree. The oracle resolution problem (especially for non-binary or continuous events) is something we've actually been digging into quite a bit. We've spoken with some really interesting founders working on this. Curious if you’ve come across any projects that are tackling this from a new angle?
Strong take on prediction markets as data infra rather than just betting. The Polymarket-ICE deal really does signal a shift from fee-based revenue to data monetization, which makes alot more sense at scale. One thing I'd push back on slightly is the oracle problem for non-binary events like "rainfall hedging" becuz verification gets messy quick and dispute resolution can eat into efficency gains. Still tho, the Arrow-Debreu resurgence angle is something I've been mulling over too.
Very much agree. The oracle resolution problem (especially for non-binary or continuous events) is something we've actually been digging into quite a bit. We've spoken with some really interesting founders working on this. Curious if you’ve come across any projects that are tackling this from a new angle?